This research examines the effects of Search and Rescue (SAR) operations in the Mediterranean on migration flows, safety, and mortality rates. SAR operations are critical interventions implemented to mitigate the risks faced by migrants during irregular crossings to Europe. However, their broader implications remain contentious, particularly regarding their role as a potential “pull factor” encouraging migration or their influence on the choice of migration routes.

The early stages of the research build upon the natural experiment created by Italy’s Mare Nostrum operation (2013-2014), a large-scale SAR initiative established after a significant shipwreck near Lampedusa. This operation provided a unique opportunity to assess the impact of SAR activities on migration decisions. Preliminary findings indicate that Mare Nostrum increased migration attempts on the central Mediterranean route without significantly altering overall migration flows to Europe. Additionally, there is limited evidence of rerouting effects, suggesting that migrants did not consistently switch from alternative routes to the central one as a result of the operation. However, the operation appears to have improved safety along specific routes, highlighting its impact on reducing mortality.

The thesis aims to achieve several objectives to build a comprehensive understanding of SAR operations’ effects. First, it seeks to quantify their influence on mortality rates by analyzing geolocated data on fatalities and comparing these with migration arrival figures to assess changes in crossing safety. Second, it examines the extent to which SAR operations act as a pull factor, encouraging migration attempts. This analysis will consider both direct and indirect effects, including how SAR operations may alter the strategies of migrants and smugglers. Third, the study explores the rerouting effect, assessing whether migrants shift between migration routes in response to the availability or intensity of SAR activities. Finally, it seeks to disaggregate the effects of SAR operations based on their characteristics, including differences between governmental and NGO-led initiatives, geographic focus, and operational scope. The impact of legal restrictions on NGOs will also be a focal point of analysis. 

By expanding its scope to cover all SAR operations in the Mediterranean over the past two decades, the thesis aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the interactions between migration policies and irregular migration dynamics. The findings will contribute to the ongoing policy debate about the role of SAR operations in managing irregular migration and mitigating its risks, with the ultimate goal of informing evidence-based, effective, and coordinated policy interventions.