High incarceration rates have long been a defining feature of U.S. society, disproportionately affecting racial minority communities. Research shows that incarceration is highly spatially concentrated, with disadvantaged neighborhoods experiencing higher rates of imprisonment (Simes, 2018; Morenoff & Harding, 2011). The negative impacts of incarceration on individuals and families have been widely documented and include increased recidivism (Mueller-Smith, 2015), reduced educational attainment (Aizer & Doyle, 2015), and worsened labor market outcomes (Dobbie, Goldin, & Yang, 2018), but contradictory evidence suggesting small or no effects along these outcomes also exists. At the same time, incarceration’s broader community-level effects remain insufficiently studied. This project seeks to address this gap by analyzing California’s criminal justice reforms as a natural experiment.

California’s reforms, prompted by a 2011 U.S. Supreme Court mandate to reduce prison overcrowding, resulted in significant declines in incarceration rates. A key component of the analysis uses Proposition 47, a referendum which reduced punishment severity for specific nonviolent crimes in 2014. The reform’s uneven impact across counties—punishment severity was reduced more in some counties than in others—provides a useful layer of variation to identify incarceration’s effects. Early findings indicate that neighborhoods with historically high incarceration rates have experienced increased labor market participation, reduced reliance on public assistance, and better educational outcomes following the reforms.

The project also aims to develop a structural model capturing the individual, intergenerational, and community-level effects of incarceration. This model will quantify the role of sustained exposure to high incarceration rates in driving persistent socioeconomic disparities, particularly across racial groups. By combining theoretical insights with empirical evidence, the study seeks to inform policy interventions that address the long-term harms of mass incarceration. In doing so, it aims to promote social equity, foster sustainable community development, and contribute to evidence-based approaches for creating fairer and more inclusive societies.